Potential Russo-American alignment on Syria and its impact on Iran

The Iranians appear to be expressing a sense of trepidation towards a potential rapprochement between the incoming U.S. Administration and Russia, enabling an alignment that would signal a tectonic diplomatic change for the the Syrian conflict and perhaps the greater Middle East.

According to Reuters:

Iran's foreign minister said on Tuesday Tehran opposed a U.S. presence at peace talks on Syria in the Kazakh capital next week, after a decision by Russia and Turkey to invite Washington. 

"We have not invited them, and we are against their presence," Iran's Tasnim news agency quoted Mohammad Javad Zarif as saying.

The Iranians had it their war, given the rift between the Obama Administration and Russia over the Syrian conflict. They were able to successfully position their allied forces into the Syrian region, providing an effective ground force partner to Russian combat aviation, culminating in a force of arms victory at the Battle of Aleppo. That military outcome elevated Iran at the diplomatic level; with Russia, Turkey and Iran seemingly determining the fate of Syria, as expressed at Moscow on 20DEC2016.

However, a change in U.S. Administrations offers the prospect of Russo-American rapprochement that, from the Iranian perspective, would only serve to undercut its extraterritorial standings, achieved at a relatively high price in blood and treasury, potentially rendering it the displaced member of the troika, with the U.S., Russia and regional member Turkey effecting the peace in Syria.

The Iranians are wary of this potential outcome. Over the years, multiple times, they've witnessed the Russians imposing their interests over those of the Iranians. There is a history of this sort of thing, a most recent episode being the much delayed delivery of the Russian S-300PM1 (or PMU2) long range surface-to-air missile system to Iran.

This is not to say that Iran does't possess cards to play at the diplomatic table concerning the Syrian conflict. They still maintain an expeditionary ground force drawn from various allied sources in the region. They also possess cultural links and a level of influence with the Syrian Arab Republic and related Syrian armed forces.

That said, Russia’s military cards on the table, so to speak, show the provision of indispensable logistical support in the form of heavy weapon and air support, exacting decisive results on the battlefield. Moreover, the United States and Russia, potentially aligned on the issue of Syrian conflict, would make a formidable presence at the United Nations Security Council.

Furthermore, among the issues the United States could accord favoring Russian Federation interests in exchange for a weakening of support towards Iran and its standing in the region, might be acceptance-- even informally-- of the 2014 Crimean status referendum, with acceptance of the resulting implications that would ensue.

There may be more to say on this potential in the days and weeks following the inauguration of the new U.S. Administration, whereupon policy directives will be publicly unveiled and executed.

 

Imagery uploaded on social media 17JAN2017 depicting T-62M main battle tanks supplied to Syrian military from Russian Ground Forces stocks.

Syrian Prime Minister Imad Khamis with IRIN Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, on 17JAN2017 in Tehran. Note: Shamkhani is of Iranian Arab descent.

[photo: Omid Vahabzadeh at Fars News Agency]