Iran-supported Iraqi PMF advocates expulsion of U.S. nationals

This weekend’s signing of a U.S. executive order barring immingration and travel by Iraqi citizens into the United States is having a potential ripple effect on CJTF-OIR.

According to Reuters:

Popular Mobilization, a coalition of mainly Shiite Muslim paramilitary groups armed and trained by Iran to fight Islamic State, urged Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's government to expel US nationals.

Influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said on Sunday American citizens should leave Iraq. "It would be arrogance for you[Americans] to enter Iraq and other countries freely while barring them entrance to your country ... and therefore you should get your nationals out," he said on his website.

The IRGC is sure to capitalize on Iraqi popular reaction to this ban; where inside Iraq a contest of influence has been playing out between Iran and the United States stretching as far back as OIF. Now, however, is an ensuing, critical period of intensifying, competing interests as the Mosul military campaign culminates in the defeat of ISIS.

U.S. interests in the region would have the PMF stand down after the effective defeat of ISIS, having ISF provide security for the Republic of Iraq. However, the executive order effectively undercuts the Iraqi PM while serving to bolster popular regional perceptions towards that shared by the IRGC and PMF. That is to say, Iraq is now being rendered the same as Iran, pairing the two by means of a U.S. policy orientation.

Perhaps an intended effect of the U.S. executive order is to exert leverage on the Iraqi government to separate from Iran, during forthcoming negotiations between the Trump Administration and the Iraqi government. If so, publicly the Iraqi PM might be enabled with a rescinding of the ban, while the liberation of Mosul is at hand. Furthermore, this might even fit within the 90-day time frame of the executive order.